Three scenarios and four solutions for green transport to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2050 have been designed by Prof Dr Le Anh Tuan, president of Hanoi University of Science and Technology.
Under Scenario 1, Vietnam develops BAU (business as usual) transport, and does not apply measures to ease greenhouse gas emissions. If so, the demand for gasoline and oil would continue to increase sharply in 2025-2050, while the greenhouse gas emission volume to the environment would increase from 86.16 million tons to 273.21 million tons.
Under Scenario 2, Vietnam gradually reduces emissions with domestic resources, which means replacing vehicles using electricity and green energy. If so, greenhouse gas emissions in 2025-2050 would increase from 83.61 million tons to 171.64 million tons, or 30 percent lower than the first scenario. In this case, gasoline and oil would still be major sources of energy.
Under Scenario 3, Vietnam strives for net zero emission with international support, which means integrating all policies and solutions to reduce emissions to zero by 2050. If it is implemented, after 25 years, greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam would reduce from 75.15 million tons to 30.34 million tons, while green energy types such as electricity, hydrogen, methanol and ammoniac would increase sharply.
The scenarios use four major solutions, including using energy effectively; using public means of transport instead of private vehicles; shifting to cargo transportation by land to waterways; and energy/fuel transition.
According to Tuan, the second and third scenarios are the most expected, but they would require huge investment capital in 2025-2050, $1,176.17 billion (VND29.3 quadrillion) and $1,225.37 billion (VND30.5 quadrillion), respectively.
In order to shift from using internal combustion engine to clean energy, including electricity, it would be necessary to develop charging stations. The development is described as the ‘backbone’ of the plan.
Researchers estimate that the minimum investment capital for charging stations is $31.76 billion (VND792 trillion) for Scenario 2, while the maximum investment capital is $90.88 billion (VND2.26 quadrillion) for Scenario 3.
The largest charging station network in the country has been developed by VinFast, with 3,000 stations and 150,000 charging portals. In Vietnam, the electric vehicle (EVs) market has just taken shape, with the pioneering by Vietnamese VinFast. There are also EV models with Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Audi, Wuling, MG and BYD brands in the market, but manufacturers still have not developed public charging stations and tend to rely on third parties.
According to Tuan, the ratio of EVs to charging stations in Vietnam is impressive, at 9.44:1. The standard ratio as suggested by IEA (International Energy Agency) is 10 EVs per charging station. The ratios are 7.2 in China, 57 in New Zealand, and 2.3 in South Korea.
It is estimated that the number of public charging stations for cars, trucks and passenger transportation vehicles in the future would be 201,434 by 2030, 657,180 by 2040 and 1,536,800 by 2050; for electricity buses, the figures would be 876, 6,559 and 36,990 stations, respectively.
Nguyen Dac Hung, general director of iCharge, one of private enterprises developing charging stations, said the biggest problem for charging station developers is huge capital while the EV growth rate remains modest.
Hung predicted that by 2030, the proportion of electric cars in Vietnam may be 30 percent, electric motorbikes 22 percent, and electric buses 30 percent. It is expected that by 2028, Vietnam will have 1 million electric cars, while by 2040, the figure will be 3.5 million.
Meanwhile, by the end of 2023, there were 6 million cars using internal combustion engines, and the number of newly registered cars 400,000, according to the National Traffic Safety Commission.
Therefore, the enterprise remains reserved about its charging station plan. It intends to install 100 charging stations in 2024, while the figure would be 500 by 2025 and 1,000 by 2027. By 2030, iCharge would develop 2,000 stations nationwide.
Hung told VietNamNet that he is considering three kinds of charging stations, with designed capacity of 22kw, 60-80kw and 120kw. The basic investment rate is VND700 million for 60-80kw stations and VND1.2 billion for 120kw stations. In addition, the developer would have to pay for electricity infrastructure connections, construction licenses, and premise rents.
Dinh Quy
